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Author: Mark Ainely | Partner GC Realty & Development & Co-Host Straight Up Chicago Investor Podcast
In 2025, we processed 1,019 lease expirations across our Chicago-area portfolio. The data tells an interesting story about where the market stands and how tenants are responding to renewal offers.
The Renewal Rate
Of those 1,019 leases, 72.3% renewed. We’re proud of that number, but the real story is in the context. That compares to a Chicago metro average of 61.1% and a national average hovering even lower.
Why Does This Matter?
For current and future property owners, understanding renewal trends, and how local trends compare to national ones, is essential to evaluating the health of your investment.
Turnover is expensive. Between vacancy loss, turnover repair costs, utilities, and leasing expenses, replacing a tenant in Chicago typically runs three to seven times the cost of one month’s rent. And those are just the hard costs, your time and the risk of extended vacancy are even harder to quantify.
When nearly three-quarters of tenants choose to stay, that’s significant cost avoidance.
But the bigger story is in the consistency. GC Realty has posted renewal rates in the low-to-mid 70s for consecutive years now, and that pattern tells us something about what’s happening on the ground. When tenants explore their options, they’re often finding rental rates even higher elsewhere in the city and suburbs, so staying put starts to look like the better deal. Others would love for their next move to be a home purchase, but housing inventory in Chicago remains near all-time lows, keeping that door closed for many. And for a growing number of middle-class renters, there’s a general sense of uncertainty, holding steady feels like the safer bet right now.
These aren’t just GC Realty trends. They reflect broader pressures in the Chicago market that every landlord and investor should be paying attention to.
Want More Long-Term Tenants?
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https://www.gcrealtyinc.com/chicago-tenant-screening-mastery-guide
The Rent Increases
For tenants who renewed, the average rent increase was 7.1%, with a median of 6.0%. Here’s how the increases broke down:
No increase (0%): 8.6% of renewals
Under 5%: 39.1% of renewals
Between 5–10%: 33.7% of renewals
Over 10%: 18.6% of renewals
The data shows that most tenants accepted moderate increases without walking away. Even at the higher end, nearly one in five renewals came with increases above 10%, often properties that needed correction to reach market rate.
On some of the larger increases, tenants accepted $400+ rent jumps because they knew we were still under market. For them, sticking around another year was simply the smarter plan.
The Takeaway
Chicago tenants are staying, and the reasons go beyond any single factor. Moving costs are up, rental rates elsewhere are often higher, homeownership inventory is near historic lows, and economic uncertainty is keeping many renters in a hold-steady mindset. When you layer responsive property management on top of those conditions, renewal becomes the clear choice for most tenants.
For landlords, the data is encouraging: a 6–7% average increase paired with a 72% renewal rate shows that tenants are willing to absorb reasonable increases rather than test the market. That’s room to grow income without sacrificing stability, as long as you’re giving tenants a reason to stay beyond just the math.
How Long Can We Expect This in Chicago?
This is the first time we’ve publicly shared our lease renewal data, but the trend itself isn’t new. Renewal rates in the low-to-mid 70s have been our reality since around 2020, and the natural question every investor should be asking is: how long does this last?
Let’s be honest, Chicago investors are fortunate right now. High renewal rates, consistent rent growth, and limited tenant mobility are tailwinds that smart investors take advantage of while they’re blowing. But anyone who’s been in real estate long enough knows it’s cyclical. These conditions won’t last forever.
The good news is that housing inventory isn’t opening up anytime soon. Affordability constraints and construction costs continue to limit new supply, which keeps existing tenants in place. However, we do expect rent growth to level off in 2026. As more new units come to market, particularly in certain city and suburban submarkets, landlords will need to be more thoughtful about aggressive increases. The risk isn’t just tenants leaving; it’s newer buildings offering concessions and incentives that make your property look expensive by comparison.
There’s another factor that doesn’t get talked about enough: your relationship with your residents. Market conditions create the environment, but the tenant experience determines whether your property outperforms or underperforms that environment. Happy tenants who have the amenities they need for their current stage of life, whether that’s a young professional, a growing family, or a downsizing retiree, tend to stay longer than they technically need to. That inertia works in your favor.
The small things compound over time. How quickly you respond to a question. How fast routine maintenance gets handled. Whether the unit has been updated enough to feel like a home, not just a rental. None of these guarantee a renewal on their own, but together they remove the reasons tenants start browsing listings in the first place. In a market where tenants are already inclined to stay, giving them one less reason to leave is often all it takes.
Don’t Go At This Alone
This is a lot of information you need to know if you plan to invest here in the Chicago market and it may seem overwhelming but real estate investing in Chicago is a team sport. Who is on your real estate investing team? Do you have a team? GC Realty & Development has a team of resources and we are willing to share all of our 20+ years of experience in both real estate investing and Property Management in the Chicago market. We will do this whether you hire us or not.
What gets me up in the morning and keeps me going 12+ hours a day of work is the ability to add value to Chicago real estate investors. If we connect you will here my say our goal of our company is to have value to have everyone we come in contact with and in return we hope one day you will hire us for our Tenant Placement or Property Management Services You can also refer us to someone you know that needs Tenant Placement or Property Management Services, or I will take a simple 5 Star Google review. We love the opportunity when we get all three from current and aspiring investors we get to help!
Reach out today!
Partner / Co-Host of Straight Up Chicago Investor Podcast
